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Why Nobody Believes the Numbers

Distinguishing Fact from Fiction in Population Health Management
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Al Lewis
eBook Typ:
Adobe Digital Editions
eBook Format:
Adobe DRM [Hard-DRM]

Why Nobody Believes the Numbers introduces a uniqueviewpoint to population health outcomesmeasurement: Results/ROIs should be presented as theyare, not as we wish they would be. This viewpointcontrasts sharply with vendor/promoter/consultant claims along twovery important dimensions:
(1) Why Nobody Believes presentsoutcomes/ROIs achievable right here on this veryplanet...

(2) ...calculated using actual data ratherthan controlled substances.

Indeed, nowhere in healthcare is it possible to find suchsharply contrasting worldviews, methodologies, and grips onreality.

Why Nobody Believes the Numbers includes 12 case studiesof vendors, carriers, and consultants who were apparently playinghooky the day their teacher covered fifth-grade math, as told by anauthor whose argument style can be so persuasive that he was onceable to convince a resort to sell him a timeshare. The book'slesson: no need to believe what your vendor tells you-- instead you can estimate your own savings using"ingredients you already have in your kitchen." Don'tbe intimidated just because you lack a PhD in biostatistics, oreven a Masters, Bachelor's, high-school equivalency diploma orup-to-date inspection sticker.

Why Nobody Believes the Numbers explains howto determine if the ROIs are real...and why they usuallyaren't. You'll learn how to:
* Figure out whether you are "moving the needle" or justcrediting a program with changes that would have happenedanyway
* Judge whether the ROIs your vendors report are plausible oreven arithmetically possible
* Synthesize all these insights into RFPs and contracts thattruly hold vendors accountable for results
Introduction xiii

Chapter 1 Actuaries Behaving Badly 1

Chapter 2 Plausibility Testing: How to Measure Outcomes UsingIngredients You Already Have in Your Kitchen 35

Chapter 3 Case Studies That Flunk Every Plausibility Test Knownto Mankind 53

Chapter 4 Case Studies That Flunk Every Plausibility Test Knownto Mankind and Then Some 73

Chapter 5 Case Studies of Where, When, and How Wellness ProgramsHave Actually Worked 125

Chapter 6 Yes, Virginia, There Is a Savings Clause 141

Chapter 7 Disease Management Programs That Actually Work (PinchMe) 151

Chapter 8 Contracting/RFP Checklist of Do's andDon'ts (Mostly Don'ts) 175

Appendix: The Keys to the Numerical Kingdom 193

Author's Note on Sources 195

Notes 197

Glossary 201

About the Author 207

Bibliography and Further Reading 209

Acknowledgments 211
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