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Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence

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ISBN-13:
9781506316864
Einband:
EPUB
Seiten:
408
Autor:
Katherine H. Pherson
eBook Typ:
Adobe Digital Editions
eBook Format:
EPUB
Kopierschutz:
Adobe DRM [Hard-DRM]
Sprache:
Englisch
Beschreibung:

With this second edition of Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence, Randolph H. Pherson and Katherine Hibbs Pherson update their highly regarded, easy-to-use handbook for developing core critical thinking skills and analytic techniques. This indispensable text is framed around 20 key questions that all analysts must ask themselves as they prepare to conduct research, generate hypotheses, evaluate sources of information, draft papers, and ultimately present analysis. New material includes a chapter on working with statistics and probabilities at an introductory level; discussions on how to work with social media; managing the “big data” phenomenon and what role analysis plays both at the front and back end of utilizing such information.


Each of the book’s chapters are consistently organized, enabling students and analysts alike to easily trace the key steps of: Setting the Stage; Looking More Deeply; Key Takeaways; Considering the Case Study, and the book’s illustrations include useful graphics that diagram and display the processes and structured analytic techniques for arriving at the best possible analytical products. The “Analyst’s Roadmap” provides an at-a-glance “map” for readers depicting the best practices involved in perfecting the analytical product. A set of carefully crafted case studies on national intelligence, homeland security, and law enforcement issues illustrate how to apply these critical thinking skills tie directly to end-of-chapter questions, providing valuable self-assessment opportunities.

With this second edition of Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence, Randolph H. Pherson and Katherine Hibbs Pherson update their highly regarded, easy-to-use handbook for developing core critical thinking skills and analytic techniques. This indispensable text is framed around 20 key questions that all analysts must ask themselves as they prepare to conduct research, generate hypotheses, evaluate sources of information, draft papers, and ultimately present analysis. New material includes a chapter on working with statistics and probabilities at an introductory level; discussions on how to work with social media; managing the “big data” phenomenon and what role analysis plays both at the front and back end of utilizing such information.

Each of the book’s chapters are consistently organized, enabling students and analysts alike to easily trace the key steps of: Setting the Stage; Looking More Deeply; Key Takeaways; Considering the Case Study, and the book’s illustrations include useful graphics that diagram and display the processes and structured analytic techniques for arriving at the best possible analytical products. The “Analyst’s Roadmap” provides an at-a-glance “map” for readers depicting the best practices involved in perfecting the analytical product. A set of carefully crafted case studies on national intelligence, homeland security, and law enforcement issues illustrate how to apply these critical thinking skills tie directly to end-of-chapter questions, providing valuable self-assessment opportunities.

List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes
Foreword
Preface
About the Authors
Introduction to the Second Edition
Introduction
Part I. How Do I Get Started?
1. Who Are Your Clients?
2. What Are the Key Questions?
3. What Is the Broader Context for the Analysis?
4. How Should I Conceptualize My Product?
5. What Is My Analytic Approach?
6. Can Collaboration Contribute to a Better Answer?
Part II. Where Is the Information I Need?
7. How Do Models Help My Analysis?
8. What Types of Information Are Available?
9. Can I Trust the Sources?
10. How Should I Assess the Reliability of Internet Information?
Part III. What Is My Argument?
11. Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?
12. Can I Make My Case?
13. Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?
14. How Do I Deal With Politicization?
15. How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong?
Part IV. How Do I Convey My Message Effectively?
16. Is My Argument Persuasive?
17. How Should I Portray Probability, Levels of Confidence, and Quantitative Data?
18. How Can Graphics Support My Analysis?
19. How Do I Present My Message in the Most Compelling Way?
20. How Do I Know When I Am Finished?
Part V. Case Studies
I. Countering the Iranian Nuclear Threat: Stuxnet and Its Broader Implications
II. Puzzling Food Poisonings in Germany
III. The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriers
IV. Financial Crises in the United States: Chronic or Avoidable?
V. Yemen: An Expanding Security Threat?
Glossary of Terms
List of Names
Recommended Readings
US Government Publications
Index
The Analyst’s Roadmap (Inside Back Cover)

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